Page 66 - sesesp01_2002
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FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING OLD-AGE PENSION SPENDING WILL RISE 4% OF GDP
El gasto público a lo largo del período 2000- and education. However, in this exercise, the coverage of projections for these other
medio en 2050, conviene descompo- components is much less complete across countries than is the case for pensions.
nerlas en cuatro factores: Based on information from countries, spending components that are sensitive to
pensiones para the age structure of the population represent between 40 and 60 per cent of total
las personas s Un efecto de dependencia o public spending.
mayores es el de envejecimiento poblacional,
7,5% del PIB que refleja variaciones en la rela- Old-age pension spending includes, all old-age pension spending, all early
ción entre quienes tienen edades retirement pension spending which is an integral part of the public pension system,
cedentes de fuentes privadas es superiores a 55 años y la pobla- and survivors and minimum pensions. Currently, public old-age pension spending
más alta. Para muchos países con ción con edades de 20 a 64 años. represents around 7,5% of GDP. There are differences:
esquemas de tipo fijo, la edad de
jubilación es de 65 años con pocas s Un efecto de empleo, origi- q In countries with programmes where benefits are largely paid through
oportunidades de recibir presta- nado por las variaciones en la re- state-run or bi- or tri-partite earnings-related schemes, public retirement
ciones antes de esa edad. lación de la población de 20 a 64 income is linked to past work and/or contribution histories, although flat-rate
años con la que tiene empleo. elements are nearly always present in the form of minimum pensions. Virtually
GASTO EN PENSIONES PARA all countries with well-developed and mature public-sector earnings-related
LAS PERSONAS MAYORES, s El efecto de prestación, re- systems tend to have above average pension spending, although the level of
TENDENCIAS HASTA EL 2050 lativo a variaciones en el importe spending varies with the generosity of benefits and the age of retirement.
de la pensión media respecto del
Las proyecciones sugieren PIB por trabajador. q In other countries, predominately flat rate schemes generally aim to
que el gasto en pensiones provide a minimum basic income for the elderly irrespective of their work
para mayores aumentará por s Un efecto de eligibilidad, que history. Spending under these systems is lower, partly reflecting the fact that
término medio entre el 3 y el corresponde a variaciones en la the basic pension component often serves as a safety net, with a larger share
4% del PIB de aquí al 2050, fracción de quienes reciben pres- of income in retirement coming from private sources than for most countries
pero con variaciones entre taciones en el grupo de los mayo- with ER systems. For many countries with flat-rate schemes, the retirement age
los países. Se proyecta que res de 55 años. is 65 with little opportunity to receive pension benefits before this age.
el gasto en pensiones caiga
como fracción del PIB en Po- Los resultados muestran OLD-AGE PENSION SPENDING TRENDS TO 2050
lonia y en el Reino Unido, y el aumento del gasto asocia-
que permanezcan estables do a la variación de cada uno Projections based on assumptions of unchanged policy suggest that old-age ➾
en Italia. Se prevén aumen- de estos componentes toma- pension spending will rise on average by around 3 to 4% of GDP in the period to
tos de más de 4 puntos en dos por separado. Los dos úl- 2050, but with considerable cross-country variation. Pension spending is projected
diez países (entre ellos Por- timos factores miden la ge- to fall as a share of GDP over the period for Poland and for the United Kingdom, and
tugal), y en siete de ellos el nerosidad variable de los sis- to remain broadly stable for Italy. In contrast, increases of more than 4% of GDP
aumento será de 5 puntos o temas de pensiones. are projected for ten countries (including Portugal) and for seven among these, it
más. Este aumento del gasto will be 5% or more. This spending increase is mainly driven by population ageing
se debe, ante todo, al enve- El aumento del envejeci- offset by the effects of assumed higher participation rates and lower
jecimiento de la población, miento/dependencia es el unemployment on GDP and by lower average benefits. To illustrate the forces
compensado por los efectos factor clave que gobierna el driving the change in the share of spending in GDP, breaks it into 4 factors:
sobre el PIB de la hipótesis gasto en pensiones. El efec-
de mayores tasas de partici- to medio del envejecimiento q A dependency or population-ageing effect, reflecting changes in the ratio
pación y menor desempleo y tomado por separado es del of those aged 55+ to the population aged 20 to 64.
por la bajada de la presta- 5% del PIB. Los incremen-
ción media. tos inducidos por el envejeci- q An employment effect, driven by changes in the ratio of the population
miento son los más altos en aged 20 to 64 to employment.
Para ilustrar las fuerzas los países europeos que han
que impulsan la variación desarrollado con plenitud q The benefit effect, related to changes in the average pension benefit
del gasto en fracción del PIB planes de pensiones relacio- relative to GDP per worker.
nados con los ingresos y/o
experimentan un envejeci- q An eligibility effect, corresponding to changes in the share of those
miento rápido. receiving benefits in the 55+ age group.
Las proyecciones de casi The results show the increase in spending associated with the change in each
todos los países presentan one of these components taken independently. The last two factors are measures of
tasas de empleo crecientes the changing generosity of pension systems. While the results of such
como resultado de suponer decompositions need to be treated with caution, they suggest that increased
ageing/dependency is the key factor driving pension spending. The average impact
of ageing taken alone is around 5% of GDP. The ageing-induced increases are
highest in a number of European countries which have fully developed and
generous earnings-related pension schemes and/or rapid ageing.
Almost all country projections have increasing employment ratios as a result of
assumed higher female participation rates, lower unemployment or increased
average retirement ages. This boosts output and reduces the cost of pension
systems taken as a share of GDP.
Sesenta y más 71
El gasto público a lo largo del período 2000- and education. However, in this exercise, the coverage of projections for these other
medio en 2050, conviene descompo- components is much less complete across countries than is the case for pensions.
nerlas en cuatro factores: Based on information from countries, spending components that are sensitive to
pensiones para the age structure of the population represent between 40 and 60 per cent of total
las personas s Un efecto de dependencia o public spending.
mayores es el de envejecimiento poblacional,
7,5% del PIB que refleja variaciones en la rela- Old-age pension spending includes, all old-age pension spending, all early
ción entre quienes tienen edades retirement pension spending which is an integral part of the public pension system,
cedentes de fuentes privadas es superiores a 55 años y la pobla- and survivors and minimum pensions. Currently, public old-age pension spending
más alta. Para muchos países con ción con edades de 20 a 64 años. represents around 7,5% of GDP. There are differences:
esquemas de tipo fijo, la edad de
jubilación es de 65 años con pocas s Un efecto de empleo, origi- q In countries with programmes where benefits are largely paid through
oportunidades de recibir presta- nado por las variaciones en la re- state-run or bi- or tri-partite earnings-related schemes, public retirement
ciones antes de esa edad. lación de la población de 20 a 64 income is linked to past work and/or contribution histories, although flat-rate
años con la que tiene empleo. elements are nearly always present in the form of minimum pensions. Virtually
GASTO EN PENSIONES PARA all countries with well-developed and mature public-sector earnings-related
LAS PERSONAS MAYORES, s El efecto de prestación, re- systems tend to have above average pension spending, although the level of
TENDENCIAS HASTA EL 2050 lativo a variaciones en el importe spending varies with the generosity of benefits and the age of retirement.
de la pensión media respecto del
Las proyecciones sugieren PIB por trabajador. q In other countries, predominately flat rate schemes generally aim to
que el gasto en pensiones provide a minimum basic income for the elderly irrespective of their work
para mayores aumentará por s Un efecto de eligibilidad, que history. Spending under these systems is lower, partly reflecting the fact that
término medio entre el 3 y el corresponde a variaciones en la the basic pension component often serves as a safety net, with a larger share
4% del PIB de aquí al 2050, fracción de quienes reciben pres- of income in retirement coming from private sources than for most countries
pero con variaciones entre taciones en el grupo de los mayo- with ER systems. For many countries with flat-rate schemes, the retirement age
los países. Se proyecta que res de 55 años. is 65 with little opportunity to receive pension benefits before this age.
el gasto en pensiones caiga
como fracción del PIB en Po- Los resultados muestran OLD-AGE PENSION SPENDING TRENDS TO 2050
lonia y en el Reino Unido, y el aumento del gasto asocia-
que permanezcan estables do a la variación de cada uno Projections based on assumptions of unchanged policy suggest that old-age ➾
en Italia. Se prevén aumen- de estos componentes toma- pension spending will rise on average by around 3 to 4% of GDP in the period to
tos de más de 4 puntos en dos por separado. Los dos úl- 2050, but with considerable cross-country variation. Pension spending is projected
diez países (entre ellos Por- timos factores miden la ge- to fall as a share of GDP over the period for Poland and for the United Kingdom, and
tugal), y en siete de ellos el nerosidad variable de los sis- to remain broadly stable for Italy. In contrast, increases of more than 4% of GDP
aumento será de 5 puntos o temas de pensiones. are projected for ten countries (including Portugal) and for seven among these, it
más. Este aumento del gasto will be 5% or more. This spending increase is mainly driven by population ageing
se debe, ante todo, al enve- El aumento del envejeci- offset by the effects of assumed higher participation rates and lower
jecimiento de la población, miento/dependencia es el unemployment on GDP and by lower average benefits. To illustrate the forces
compensado por los efectos factor clave que gobierna el driving the change in the share of spending in GDP, breaks it into 4 factors:
sobre el PIB de la hipótesis gasto en pensiones. El efec-
de mayores tasas de partici- to medio del envejecimiento q A dependency or population-ageing effect, reflecting changes in the ratio
pación y menor desempleo y tomado por separado es del of those aged 55+ to the population aged 20 to 64.
por la bajada de la presta- 5% del PIB. Los incremen-
ción media. tos inducidos por el envejeci- q An employment effect, driven by changes in the ratio of the population
miento son los más altos en aged 20 to 64 to employment.
Para ilustrar las fuerzas los países europeos que han
que impulsan la variación desarrollado con plenitud q The benefit effect, related to changes in the average pension benefit
del gasto en fracción del PIB planes de pensiones relacio- relative to GDP per worker.
nados con los ingresos y/o
experimentan un envejeci- q An eligibility effect, corresponding to changes in the share of those
miento rápido. receiving benefits in the 55+ age group.
Las proyecciones de casi The results show the increase in spending associated with the change in each
todos los países presentan one of these components taken independently. The last two factors are measures of
tasas de empleo crecientes the changing generosity of pension systems. While the results of such
como resultado de suponer decompositions need to be treated with caution, they suggest that increased
ageing/dependency is the key factor driving pension spending. The average impact
of ageing taken alone is around 5% of GDP. The ageing-induced increases are
highest in a number of European countries which have fully developed and
generous earnings-related pension schemes and/or rapid ageing.
Almost all country projections have increasing employment ratios as a result of
assumed higher female participation rates, lower unemployment or increased
average retirement ages. This boosts output and reduces the cost of pension
systems taken as a share of GDP.
Sesenta y más 71
