Page 70 - sesesp01_2002
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FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING OLD-AGE PENSION SPENDING WILL RISE 4% OF GDP
Una deuda las familias que tengan larger than the impact of old-age pension spending alone in the countries which
pública elevada tiempo de ajustarse al cam- project only the latter. This can be seen by examining the projections for countries
implica una gran bio. Si las políticas se im- providing estimates of age-related budget items other than pensions.
vulnerabilidad plantan con retraso, será
respecto a los preciso tomar medidas más The overall impact on the fiscal situation of these developments will depend on
tipos de interés estrictas para conseguir los the cumulated change in the primary balance over the projection period, coupled
mismos resultados. with the associated change in debt-interest payments. The outcome in terms of
na al 8%, mientras que la debt as a share of GDP is highly sensitive to the initial levels of debt and primary
caída de las prestaciones REFORMAS COMBINADAS balance, the change in the primary balance through the period and the assumed
medias tendría que ser más interest rate (relative to GDP growth). Small changes can lead to substantial
del doble, en torno al 17%. En la elección de las re- differences by the end of the period for a “stylised” country, making simulations of
formas, los países se centra- debt outcomes for individual countries highly uncertain. Nonetheless, the results
La exigencia de una ac- rán en el efecto sobre los in- shown, first, that countries will be in a better position to confront ageing pressures
ción intensa sobre las presta- gresos de las personas mayo- if their primary surpluses are sufficiently high for them to reduce their net-debt
ciones de pensión en lugar res. La caída de las presta- positions rapidly in the period before dependency ratios begin to rise sharply.
de sobre el número de pen- ciones medias puede signifi-
sionistas refleja los efectos car el ensanchamiento de la WHAT ARE THE POLICY OPTIONS?
de realimentación de menos diferencia entre las ganan-
pensionistas sobre más em- cias salariales y los ingresos In sum, on the basis of present policies, age-related spending is likely to
pleo y PIB, así como el efec- de los jubilados y el aumen- increase on average by 6 to 7% of GDP. Spending projections could be still higher
to sobre los ingresos fiscales. to de la pobreza entre las than those presented here if the extent of population ageing turns out to be
En realidad, los recortes de personas mayores. underestimated. Cyclically adjusted primary balances have improved in most OECD
generosidad de las pensio- countries, in many cases moving into surplus. Debt is falling as a result. If the non-
nes podrían inducir a las per- Para paliar los efectos in- age-related components of these surpluses can be sustained over time, a
sonas a trabajar más tiempo, deseables y aumentar la sos- substantial part of the projected increase in age-related spending can be
y la jubilación tardía condu- tenibilidad de las reformas, absorbed, thereby reducing the extent of fiscal strains.
ciría a la subida de las pen- puede ser preciso establecer
siones, lo que sugiere que la políticas de acompañamien- Nonetheless, there is no reason for complacency:
separación de s dos efectos to que proporcionen fuentes q Non-ageing primary surpluses than currently registered, sustained over
puede no ser tan clara. alternativas de ingresos en la half a century, would be required to prevent debt-to-GDP ratios rising above
jubilación. current levels.
Como alternativa, los pa- q A few countries are still in primary deficit, and reforms in these countries
íses podrían elegir incre- Al enfrentarse a los asun- are all the more urgent if rapid accumulation of debt is to be avoided as ageing
mentar sus superávits ahora tos fiscales a largo plazo, los accelerates.
para compensar el efecto países necesitan considerar q Large primary surpluses have been achieved, in most cases, by increases
del envejecimiento sobre el ciertos instrumentos: in tax pressure from an already high level, with accompanying distorting effects
déficit en todo el resto del on markets, potentially leading to slower growth.
período. s Las políticas que permitan q A large stock of public debt implies a high degree of vulnerability to changes
retirar trabajadores mayores del in interest rates, particularly when a large share of the debt is short term.
Hay una oportunidad an- mercado de trabajo tendrán que q Most governments experience pressure to “spend” surpluses where they
tes de que comience la su- ser vigiladas de cerca. occur implying that these surpluses may not be easy to sustain.
bida rápida de las relacio- q In most countries pension spending already accounts for a large share of
nes de dependencia. Los s El efecto del retraso de la social spending and this will progressively increase. This, in turn, will limit budget
países pueden aprovechar jubilación, de las mayores tasas flexibility and the resources available for other spending programmes.
este período para mejorar la de participación de trabajadores
situación fiscal general y mayores y de la inmigración de- REFORMS COMBINATIONS
anunciar reformas, sobre to- pende de si las personas afecta-
do en que las políticas se das encuentran empleo. Sus In addressing long-term fiscal issues, countries need to consider a wider range
armonicen para permitir a oportunidades se promoverán of policy instruments:
mediante reformas que reduz-
can el desempleo estructural y q Policies permitting withdrawal of older workers from the labour market
estimulen el crecimiento rápido will have to be monitored closely. Even though all reporting countries except
del empleo. Norway project broad stability or declines in spending on these programmes as
a share of GDP, the rising share of older workers in the working-age population
may still put upward pressure on expenditure.
q The impact of later retirement, higher participation rates of older workers
and immigration depends on whether the individuals concerned find
employment. Their employment opportunities will be promoted by reforms to
reduce structural unemployment and encourage rapid employment growth.
Sesenta y más 75
Una deuda las familias que tengan larger than the impact of old-age pension spending alone in the countries which
pública elevada tiempo de ajustarse al cam- project only the latter. This can be seen by examining the projections for countries
implica una gran bio. Si las políticas se im- providing estimates of age-related budget items other than pensions.
vulnerabilidad plantan con retraso, será
respecto a los preciso tomar medidas más The overall impact on the fiscal situation of these developments will depend on
tipos de interés estrictas para conseguir los the cumulated change in the primary balance over the projection period, coupled
mismos resultados. with the associated change in debt-interest payments. The outcome in terms of
na al 8%, mientras que la debt as a share of GDP is highly sensitive to the initial levels of debt and primary
caída de las prestaciones REFORMAS COMBINADAS balance, the change in the primary balance through the period and the assumed
medias tendría que ser más interest rate (relative to GDP growth). Small changes can lead to substantial
del doble, en torno al 17%. En la elección de las re- differences by the end of the period for a “stylised” country, making simulations of
formas, los países se centra- debt outcomes for individual countries highly uncertain. Nonetheless, the results
La exigencia de una ac- rán en el efecto sobre los in- shown, first, that countries will be in a better position to confront ageing pressures
ción intensa sobre las presta- gresos de las personas mayo- if their primary surpluses are sufficiently high for them to reduce their net-debt
ciones de pensión en lugar res. La caída de las presta- positions rapidly in the period before dependency ratios begin to rise sharply.
de sobre el número de pen- ciones medias puede signifi-
sionistas refleja los efectos car el ensanchamiento de la WHAT ARE THE POLICY OPTIONS?
de realimentación de menos diferencia entre las ganan-
pensionistas sobre más em- cias salariales y los ingresos In sum, on the basis of present policies, age-related spending is likely to
pleo y PIB, así como el efec- de los jubilados y el aumen- increase on average by 6 to 7% of GDP. Spending projections could be still higher
to sobre los ingresos fiscales. to de la pobreza entre las than those presented here if the extent of population ageing turns out to be
En realidad, los recortes de personas mayores. underestimated. Cyclically adjusted primary balances have improved in most OECD
generosidad de las pensio- countries, in many cases moving into surplus. Debt is falling as a result. If the non-
nes podrían inducir a las per- Para paliar los efectos in- age-related components of these surpluses can be sustained over time, a
sonas a trabajar más tiempo, deseables y aumentar la sos- substantial part of the projected increase in age-related spending can be
y la jubilación tardía condu- tenibilidad de las reformas, absorbed, thereby reducing the extent of fiscal strains.
ciría a la subida de las pen- puede ser preciso establecer
siones, lo que sugiere que la políticas de acompañamien- Nonetheless, there is no reason for complacency:
separación de s dos efectos to que proporcionen fuentes q Non-ageing primary surpluses than currently registered, sustained over
puede no ser tan clara. alternativas de ingresos en la half a century, would be required to prevent debt-to-GDP ratios rising above
jubilación. current levels.
Como alternativa, los pa- q A few countries are still in primary deficit, and reforms in these countries
íses podrían elegir incre- Al enfrentarse a los asun- are all the more urgent if rapid accumulation of debt is to be avoided as ageing
mentar sus superávits ahora tos fiscales a largo plazo, los accelerates.
para compensar el efecto países necesitan considerar q Large primary surpluses have been achieved, in most cases, by increases
del envejecimiento sobre el ciertos instrumentos: in tax pressure from an already high level, with accompanying distorting effects
déficit en todo el resto del on markets, potentially leading to slower growth.
período. s Las políticas que permitan q A large stock of public debt implies a high degree of vulnerability to changes
retirar trabajadores mayores del in interest rates, particularly when a large share of the debt is short term.
Hay una oportunidad an- mercado de trabajo tendrán que q Most governments experience pressure to “spend” surpluses where they
tes de que comience la su- ser vigiladas de cerca. occur implying that these surpluses may not be easy to sustain.
bida rápida de las relacio- q In most countries pension spending already accounts for a large share of
nes de dependencia. Los s El efecto del retraso de la social spending and this will progressively increase. This, in turn, will limit budget
países pueden aprovechar jubilación, de las mayores tasas flexibility and the resources available for other spending programmes.
este período para mejorar la de participación de trabajadores
situación fiscal general y mayores y de la inmigración de- REFORMS COMBINATIONS
anunciar reformas, sobre to- pende de si las personas afecta-
do en que las políticas se das encuentran empleo. Sus In addressing long-term fiscal issues, countries need to consider a wider range
armonicen para permitir a oportunidades se promoverán of policy instruments:
mediante reformas que reduz-
can el desempleo estructural y q Policies permitting withdrawal of older workers from the labour market
estimulen el crecimiento rápido will have to be monitored closely. Even though all reporting countries except
del empleo. Norway project broad stability or declines in spending on these programmes as
a share of GDP, the rising share of older workers in the working-age population
may still put upward pressure on expenditure.
q The impact of later retirement, higher participation rates of older workers
and immigration depends on whether the individuals concerned find
employment. Their employment opportunities will be promoted by reforms to
reduce structural unemployment and encourage rapid employment growth.
Sesenta y más 75
